全球狂吹降息風 微利時代恐來臨

應該會登在12月份的財訊...


全球狂吹降息風 微利時代恐來臨


李家緯

2002年11月，時任美國聯準會(Fed)委員會成員之一的貝南克發表題為“通貨緊縮：確保它不會在這裡發生 ”(Deflation: Making Sure `It' Doesn't Happen Here)的演講，引起經濟學家極大反響。當時美國的經濟成長遲緩，通貨膨脹程度很低，聯邦基金利率已經降到了 1.25%的水準，市場擔心美國將重蹈日本通貨緊縮(Deflation)的窘境。

貝南克當時在演講中則認為，美國陷入通貨緊縮的可能性很小，主要是因為美國經濟深具彈性及穩定性，特別是穩健的金融體系，加上聯準會在貨幣政策上的獨立性，皆有助於維持物價--不論是面對通脹或是通縮的環境。惟貝南克直言，政府還是不應該輕忽通貨緊縮的風險，並在演講中提及預防及擺脫通貨緊縮的方法。

零利率時代來臨，通縮夢魘恐成真
時至今日，已身為聯準會主席的貝南克，面對的卻是美國經濟陷入百年以來的大衰退，房地產及金融資產價格崩跌，民間消費及企業支出一厥不振，失業人數不斷竄升，連美國一向引以為傲的金融體系也面臨崩潰的邊緣。這次金融海嘯加上景氣衰退所造成的「完美風暴」，讓全球總合需求一下子驟降，而過去幾年榮景時所累積的總合供給卻無法在短時間之內調整，造成所謂超額產能(over capacity)的現象，這將使物價恐進一步崩跌。

此外從金融市場上幾個現象觀察，諸如美國10年期的公債利率已經下滑至今年的低點(通常通膨預期越低，公債殖利率愈低)；通膨避險工具黃金價格大幅下挫，還有美國抗通膨債券(TIPS)與同天期公債的利差大幅縮窄等等，都意味著整體物價的壓力正快速下滑，若配合今年上半年物價高漲的表現，明年上半很有可能出現CPI呈現負成長的現象。

除了美國以外，全球景氣也是一片哀鴻遍野，迫使各國政府開始競相降息以挽救岌岌可危的經濟。目前美國利率已降至1%水準，日本更只有0.3%；英國央行無預警調降6碼至3%，未來也不排除降至零的可能。連一向對通膨保持鷹派的歐洲央行也不敵景氣快速惡化的窘境，在一個月內二度降息至3.25%，市場紛紛預期這場全球經濟衰退可能比想像中的更嚴峻，造成多國央行降息到零的機率大增，全球零利率時代或許即將降臨。

然而在整體經濟增長放緩和信貸緊縮的大環境下，持續大幅降息卻未能帶來預想的效果，反而讓人擔憂通貨緊縮的惡夢再度捲土重來。從最近的經濟狀況就可以看出全球需求急遽萎縮的嚴重性；除了之前暴漲的原油乃至於原物料價格暴跌牽動物價壓力快速消退外，包括零售銷售及消費信心失速墜地、企業獲利預警、裁員甚至破產消息頻傳、工業生產、資本支出及就業市場也急遽惡化，加上金融資產價格大幅跳水，數以億美元計的資產在一夜之間蒸發，讓民眾對經濟前景更加悲觀，更不願意大舉消費，使景氣衰退進入惡性循環。

與此同時，政府在貨幣政策上卻是捉襟見肘，除了達不到預期效果外，一些經濟學家還擔心，通過持續大幅降息至超低水準，聯準會最終可能陷入日本前幾年所處的境地：即利率已接近於零，但經濟卻仍在萎縮，商品價格持續下滑，重蹈日本90年代的通貨緊縮局面，甚至不得不採取量化寬鬆的貨幣政策。事實上，美國已經開始採納「非傳統」的量化寬鬆政策，例如聯準會通過各種手段向銀行體系大量釋放流動性，並在國際市場放出大量美元，試圖解決過去美元資金趨緊的問題。

隨著降息空間有限，各國政府可能透過擴張性的財政政策來刺激景氣，國際貨幣基金(IMF)也呼籲各國採行更廣泛的財政振興政策。日本野村總合研究所首席經濟學家辜朝明就表示，降息的政策無助解除全球金融危機，唯有同時擴大財政支出；英國首相布朗也公開呼籲，在全球降息的同時，各國還應該採取財政行動來予以支持。他認為，全球協同降息的措施需要得到財政措施的配合，才能更好發揮效果。

例如美國打算提出第二套刺激經濟方案；日本則搬出1.8 兆日圓的新經濟刺激計畫，除了向民眾發放補助金外，還包括大規模的減稅已提振國內消費下周也可望跟進；英國將加速對房市、能源和小企業的支出，德國提出的刺激經濟計劃預算也高達250 億歐元，可能方案包括，為基礎設施提供援助，及延長因景氣不佳而被迫縮短工作時間的人的救濟期。而最受各界矚目的亞洲最大經濟體—中國為了避免其經濟有衰退的風險，總理溫家寶近期也宣布進一步擴大內需促進經濟平穩增長的措施，計畫到2010年底總共投入 4兆元人民幣進行投資。

微利時代投資，首重安全與保值
至於在通貨緊縮時代如何進行投資，基本上可以分作兩個階段；第一階段就是在邁入或是在通縮初期，金融市場投資首重「保值」。在這個階段通常伴隨著經濟成長減速、物價壓力下滑、央行持續降息及股市下跌等現象，因此在投資上相對注重安全性，因此包括安全性高的固定收益商品如政府債券，或是現金股息較高且經營穩定的企業股票，甚至是定期存款將獲得投資人的青睞。此外，消費需求彈性低，又較不受景氣循環影響的防禦性產業，如公用事業、醫療保健和民生必需品，也將是資金的避風港，這也是為什麼包括中華電信在內的電信三雄受到市場買盤追逐的原因。

但這些固定收益的工具隨著時間的推移吸引力將相對喪失，例如受到央行降息空間受限，債券利率最終將跌無可跌，反而因為政府擴張性財政政策擴大舉債，對債券價格不利。再如定期存款最初雖然可以發揮保值的功能，然一旦存款利率快速下滑甚至低於通貨膨脹率，反而再次出現負利率的情況。因此在通縮的中期甚至末期的第二階段，配合央行積極採行極度寬鬆的貨幣政策，進行所謂「通貨再膨脹(reflation)」的過程，資金將重返兼具保值及升值潛力的資產，例如房地產及黃金，以及基本面獲利穩定，並具有成長潛力的公司股票。

此外，目前各國政府的行動已漸由貨幣政策轉向刺激經濟的財政政策，而相關方案幾乎都不脫基礎建設以及刺激內需民生消費等相關層面，或能從其中發現其中隱藏著未來的投資機會，包括基礎建設相關的企業，以及背後潛藏的原物料需求，如鋼材、水泥等，都是值得關注的標的。

至於在各國匯率的表現上，美元在短期內仍是受到投資人追捧的貨幣，除了因為避險情緒依然主導著外匯市場，對全球經濟衰退的擔憂使美元和日圓等低息貨幣保持強勢外，各國政府為了刺激經濟，以弱勢的貨幣來刺激出口將成為既簡單又直接的手段。最近中國人民銀行行長周小川表示不排除會通過人民幣貶值，來幫助推動出口，並保持中國經濟強勁增長的談話，就是最好的例子。

但美元是否從此就一帆風順，也廣受市場質疑，因為未來美元是否能繼續強勢的風險有三；首先是投資人避險情緒可能隨著各國政府及央行積極應對金融危機並戮力刺激經濟而有所消退，市場恢復理性後也不在一昧地追求美元資產；其次是美國為了援助金融市場及刺激經濟的方案可能造就龐大財政赤字，將成為壓垮美元的不定時炸彈。最後就是美國新任總統歐巴馬的貿易政策可能加劇貿易保護主義，貿易摩擦的風險升溫，美國是否會讓其他國家在匯率上予取予求也將充滿變數，上述這些不確定因素也將成為未來國際金融市場上關注的焦點。

A deflation scare will grip the developed world over the next 12-24 months

Heading For Deflation?

A deflation scare will grip the developed world over the next 12-24 months.

Our research on past real estate bear markets and subsequent banking sector stress (throughout Europe, the U.S. and Japan) highlights that these episodes always lead to a recession, followed by a multi-year period of sub-par growth (i.e. negative output gap). In turn, excess supply helps dramatically drive down core CPI inflation in the years that follow. Granted, it could be argued that the previous episodes occurred during a period of strong structural disinflationary trends, thereby amplifying the magnitude and duration of the decline in price pressures. Nonetheless, core CPI inflation is likely to drop sharply throughout the G7 over the next 12-24 months, to lows at least comparable to the 2003 deflation scare. In turn, it is likely that the U.S. prints very low positive or even mildly negative headline CPI numbers, given the drag resulting from the recent plunge in food and energy prices. Headline inflation is less likely to turn negative in Europe given the rigidity of the price structure but a deflation scare similar to the U.S. earlier this decade is likely. The implication is that policymakers will continue to ease aggressively and then stay on hold for an extended period, benefiting our long duration call. While the longer-term consequences of such actions may be inflationary, government bond yields will adjust lower in the near term.

source:http://www.bcaresearch.com/public/story.asp?pre=PRE-20081117.GIF

BRIC Outlook

Current Topics:

• Merrill Lynch: We introduce a proprietary indicator to monitor this cycle as it unfolds. In contrast to the developed world, BRICycle shows that this is still a mid-cycle slowdown, not a recession. The BRIC walls are about to be hit by the effects of the credit crunch. The outlook for exports is terrible and for credit growth is cloudy. Yet emerging markets have some tricks up their sleeves and can help stabilize the global economy. BRIC consumption alone contributed 110bp to global growth this year, against 20bp from US consumption. There is a lot more to come, in our view. Wage growth remains high, consumers underlevered and policies supportive. The global economy is intensifying its process of rebalancing. 78% of global growth is now coming from emerging markets, rising to 88% next year. Regionally, Brazil and India are currently the most resilient BRICs, with China and Russia showing signs of a slowdown
• Morgan Stanley: We have composed annual increases in official reserves into trade balance, FDI flows and everything else. Everything else’ could include portfolio flows,remittances, loans and any other type of capital flows.The presumption here is that the more a country is reliant on this last category of flows, the more vulnerable the currency is, in an environment of abating capital inflows. Looking at the BoP positions of the BRIC economies, a prospective decline in capital flows into EM might be most damaging for the INR and least so for the CNY. RUB looks somewhat better positioned than BRL. Thus, CNY > RUB > BRL > INR
• BRIC economies should see solid growth in 2008 although performance will not be as good as in 2007 – 2Q08 growth remained strong but some slowdown is expected among other challenges
• DB: If anything, most if not all BRIC countries currently seem to be at risk of overheating. While all are growing strongly, unless Brazil and Russia experience a productivity revolution, their economic growth rates will remain way below China’s and India’s.
• Goldman Sachs: Solid but not spectacular growth among BRICs will still be extremely helpful as we estimate the BRICs will contribute close to 50% of total global growth in both 2008 and 2009, as opposed to only 30% back in 2006
• Performance of BRICs exports varies: Brazil and Russia continue to see some significant gains y/y but mostly on the back of sharp price increases in commodities, while volume slowed in Russia and is actually negative in Brazil. China export growth remains high but is starting to slow while Indian exports are growing slower.
• Domestic demand remains quite strong in all of the BRIC economies although some signs of moderation can already be seen. As a consequence, imports will continue to play a crucial role, supplying local production. Overall, import growth will remain high especially driven by the sharp increase in commodity prices
• Inflation is a global threat and it is not different for the BRIC countries. The inflation outlook and the response to the worsening inflation is nonetheless different among those countries – Russia has the highest inflation figures and the least enforcing response, while Brazil has the lowest inflation figures with the most austere monetary policy response.
• Russia headline CPI at 15.1% is the top among many EME, followed by India (+8.2%), China (+7.7%) and Brazil (+5.6%).
• Russia: Inflation is the highest since 2002 with food prices way above earlier readings. High capacity utilization and low unemployment as well as negative real interest rates (-5.0%) might postpone any fast conversion of inflation readings
• China: Inflation figures already fell back slightly but more monetary tightening – including revaluation of the CNY would be needed to control inflation.
• India: Central bank cut the repo rate, more easing is expected.
• Brazil: Highest real interest rate among the BRICs and the most protracted tightening, it is expected to be the least vulnerable to the inflationary pressures.
  

On long-term trends:

• The rapid rise of the BRIC economies bears similarity to the post-war high-growth period of Japan and Korea. Comparing with these countries, China seems to be at an advanced stage of development. India, though a few steps behind China, is poised to follow a similar growth path. With a much higher income per capita than India and China, Russia and Brazil are ahead in the development stage (Goldman Sachs)
• We have used the penetration rate of refrigerators and TV sets to gauge how the standard of living has changed and, most importantly, what section of the population benefited from the rapid growth witnessed in the past decade:
• 1) It seems that the gap in living standard between the urban and rural populations has decreased since the mid-1990s, indicating that high growth did penetrate in the rural areas
• 2) Comparing the BRIC economies, it is not surprising that Brazil and Russia's refrigerator penetration rates are higher than that of India and China. However, it seems that China has caught up with Brazil in the past decade. India is strikingly behind the rest of the BRICs again suggesting that it is probably the BRIC that is most behind in its stage of development

澳幣是否被超賣，呈現過度貶值的現象?

今天要來聊聊澳幣，這次金融風暴以來貶值幅度最大的貨幣之一(第三季以來對美元貶值31%，對台幣貶值25%)。

今天澳洲央行(RBA)再度展現經濟的企圖心，宣布降息75個基點至5.25%，不但三個月內累積下調200個基點，也使官方利率回到2004年的水準。RBA在聲明中表示，主要工業化國家的經濟明顯疲弱，且有進一步跡象表明，中國等發展中國家的經濟也正在放緩，這些情況都加劇了全球商品價格的進一步下滑。雖然降息已在預期之中，然RBA降息幅度遠超預期，還是使澳幣在消息公佈當下承壓。

除了降息的新聞，以前曾經提到的澳洲聯邦銀行（CBA）的「iPod指數」也在11/3公佈。由於澳幣在這一段時間急遽貶值， 使澳洲成為全世界62國中買8GB的蘋果iPod nano最便宜的地方，只要131.95美元，比最貴的阿根廷(353.2美元)便宜63%!，也比美國(149美元)和中國(189.5美元)便宜11%及30%。

「iPod指數」的功能就像經濟學人雜誌的「麥香堡指數」（Big Mac index）一樣，甚至能更準確反映匯率水準，較不受各地稅率、勞工成本等因素影響。因此理論上iPod的售價在全球更第應該趨於相同，特別是先進國家。因此看到這種結果，有心人(或是時間很多的人)應該到澳洲去買一堆iPod，然後送到中東或南美洲去販賣，應該可以發一筆小財!

這也許是玩笑話，但是iPod是如此，其他東西呢?特別是澳洲盛產的原物料呢?這都是投資人接下來要面對的問題:就是在這一波金融海嘯中，澳幣是否被超賣，呈現過度貶值的現象?

就像我之前幾篇文章提到的，在中短期內抱美元就對了，我也相信RBA仍有繼續降息的空間，但是若問到當下一波景氣復甦之際要投資什麼，澳幣可能將是我的首選。最主要的理由有三；1)RBA比其他國家央行採取更積極的寬鬆貨幣政策；2)澳幣過去30年的最低點發生在2001年，大概是0.50元兌一美元左右，若跌破0.60的關卡(目前約在0.6660)，套一句現代化，真是「太超過了」；3)全球原物料的需求，特別是來自新興國家及中國的需求，基本上是現代化及都市化的過程中一種「不可逆」的現象(聽過”由儉入奢易，由奢入儉難”這句話吧)。

順便一提的是，有誰知道哪裡可以做冰島克朗(Króna)的外幣定存請通知我一聲。國家破產和公司破產最大的不同就是，國家不會不見，也很難被合併，更不會被接管!所以財產頂多貶值但不會”永遠”化為烏有(最壞的狀況就是去冰島旅遊，把這些存款花光!)。最近IMF的救援計畫要求調升冰島利率至18%，加上冰島克朗已經大幅貶值，真是絕佳的投資機會，這才叫做「危機入市」!不相信?看看97年亞洲的例子就知道了。

ps 最新iPod Index下載http://images.comsec.com.au/ipo/UploadedImages/Ipod_index8688e7fa0d364c5498bd70b53a77bff9.pdf

(以上同步發表於財信出版http://wealthpress.pixnet.net/blog)