亞洲股市真是跌跌不休

跌深就是最大的利多 耐心等待落底吧

Asian Equities: Plunge Continues

• Oct 27: Marked another bad day for Asian equities on concern economic stimulus measures will fail to stop a global downturn - Nikkei 225 stock average fell 6.4% to reach its lowest closing level since 1982; Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell 12.7% to lowest level since at least mid-2004; South Korea's Kospi index bucked the trend, managing a gain of 0.8% after the BoK slashed key interest rate by a record 0.75% to 4.25%
• MSCI performance YTD as of Oct 24: Asia Pacific:-53.6% | Korea: -62.4% | China: -60.4% | India: -64.9% | Hong Kong: -54.5% | Philippines: -52.4% | Thailand: -48.3% | Malaysia: -44.4% | Indonesia: -54.9% | Singapore: -52% | Taiwan: -47.5%
• September: Asian stocks fell 17% in the biggest monthly decline since the financial crisis a decade ago. Asia hedge-fund closures jumped 19% this year. About 70 hedge funds in Asia have shut down from January to August. Assets under management fell to $168 billion in August, from $176 billion at the end of 2007 (Bloomberg)
• Review: Asian equities are the worst performing stocks globally. Most markets have fallen by 20-25% or more since their peaks last fall. Earnings are being revised down - P/E ratios cheaper than in 2007 but are not yet cheap (Lex). Markets are very oversold and redemptions are taking flows back to 2004 levels. In terms of redemptions, all inflows since late 2004 have left. The buy-in price for the 2004 inflows is 16% below current levels, inflows dated 03 are 28% below now (Citi)
• Outlook: Countries that are most capable of responding to slowing may outperform as the pass-through of inflation to corporate profits is yet to have full effect. Others may be vulnerable to policy missteps, such as India, Malaysia (DBS)
• Market drivers: FII outflows and exit by local investors alarmed at impact of global slowdown on Asia exports, high inflation, fiscal subsidies; impact of monetary tightening on consumer spending, investment, slowing global and regional growth, liquidity crunch may also impact company profits and capex plans
• Government intervention: Several countries including Taiwan, Pakistan, Vietnam, Thailand intervened in the stock market by narrowing the trading band, introducing stabilization fund to contain volatility, banning short-selling, directing govt funds to buy shares
• Upsides: AXJ region is now attractively valued, and buying into most of the region's equity markets seems a better bet than bonds; but Indian valuations still seem high (Fundsupermart). Valuations attractive in Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore, Pakistan, Vietnam
• Downside: Valuation not enough to make stocks appealing in the face of global recession. Some earnings estimates have yet to capitulate to a weaker outlook